November 9, 2007

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The Mountain States Business Conditions Index, prepared at Creighton University, continued the decline that began in August, falling to 63.6 in October.  The Colorado Index fell for the second consecutive month to 65.0 in October, after a very strong showing in August.  The Vectra Small Business Index rose to 95 in October, relative to a base of 100 in 1997.  Most of the gain was due to surprising strong performance in gross domestic product.  The fourth quarter Colorado Business Leaders Confidence Index fell to 47.9.  All six components of the index declined, pushing it to a record low.

In September, four of the Colorado Springs economic indicators prepared by David Bamberger signaled good news and four signaled bad news.  Bad news was primarily related to housing and to auto sales, with taxable retail sales also declining.

Retail sales remained strong in Colorado through June, up 8.5%.  Pueblo and Fort Collins posted the smallest increases, while Boulder and Colorado Springs had the largest.

Colorado was the top beer producing state in 2006, ahead of California and Texas.  The state produced 23.3 million barrels.

Employment

Colorado’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate inched up to 3.9% in September.  A year ago it was 4.3%.  Job growth continued to muddle along a 2.0%

Texas disagreed strongly with Colorado’s contention that it has the second largest aerospace workforce in the nation after California.  The Metro Denver Chamber reported that Colorado has 26,650 aerospace workers versus Texas’ 25,730.  Texas fired back that they had 44,131 aerospace workers last year versus 11,191 in Colorado.


Job Changes 2007


Job Gains

Company
#
Location
Frontier Airlines          
350
CO Springs
Intelligent Software  
40-50
CO Springs
MyHealthFunds
200
CO Springs
PrimeStar Solar
22
Golden
BuyWell Int’l 
30
CO Springs
Nat’l Karate Fed
?
CO Springs
Vestas Wind Systems
650
Windsor
Rocket Man Aviation
22
CO Springs
SkyWest
Up to 130
CO Springs
Springs Fabrication  
10-15
CO Springs

Job Losses

Company
#
Location
CO Tech Univ
6
CO Springs
CO Tech Univ
2
Pueblo
Dalsa
10
CO Springs
Amgen
23
Bldr/Longmont
GMAC Residential
5
Boulder

Frontier will locate a $40 million aircraft maintenance hangar in Colorado Springs, with plans to hire 200 immediately and 350 over the next two years.  Frontier is also expected to begin scheduled flights to the city.

The U.S. Olympic Committee is considering relocating its headquarters from Colorado Springs if it can’t find appropriate office space.  Economist David Bamberger reports that his 1998 study showed that spending by Olympic and related sports organization brought $315 million and 4,800 jobs to the community.

Finance

Venture capital investment in Colorado fell 14.1% to $196.6 million in the third quarter relative to a year ago, but was up 13.4% from the second quarter.  There were 24 deals, with 31% of the dollars invested going to three biotechnology companies.

Payday loans in the state increased over 28% in 2006, to $633 million, after rising 34% in 2005.   The average payday loan was for $351 for 18.5 days and carried an average rate of 329%.  There were 290,000 borrowers.  Payday lenders can charge up to 392%.  In addition to payday loans, licensed small installment lenders loaned $15 million to 15,354 residents, up 59%.  Both types of loans are categorized as subprime, a category covering loans with rates above 12%.  Supervised loans, made by finance companies, insurance premium companies and certain mortgage lenders, increased rose 17.6% to $2.2 billion.

Cost-of-living:

The cost-of-living in Denver in the second quarter was 3.7% above the national average.  At the end of the technology boom in 2000, living costs in Denver were 10.4% above the nation.  Grand Junction was also more expensive than the U.S. average by 0.3%.

 

Cost of Living – 2007:2

 

Colorado Springs

94.0

Denver

103.7

Fort Collins

94.2

Grand Junction

100.3

Greeley

98.1

Pueblo

87.0

  Source:  ACCRA COLI.

Tourism

Colorado’s hotel occupancy rate averaged 70.5% in September, up from 67.8% a year ago, according to the Rocky Mountain Lodging Report.  The average room rate climbed 7.5% to $118.06.  Grand Junction and Glenwood Springs, where housing shortages for energy workers are filling hotels, had the two of the highest occupancy rates in the state, at 86.2% and 77.5% respectively.  Estes Park and Durango also reported high occupancy rates.  The average room rate in Grand Junction of $82.65 has surged 21% over the last three years.

Housing

Housing permits fell 26.0% statewide through September.  Single-family permits were down 32.0%, while multifamily permits contracted 2.1%.  In metro Denver, single-family permits fell 36.3%, while multifamily permits increased 10.1%. 

Existing single-family home sales in metro Denver fell 8.8% in September relative to a year earlier, although they are down only 0.3% year-to-date.  The average price declined 7.4% for the month and 1.0% year-to-date.  The median price dropped 4.9% for the month and was flat through the first three quarters.  The inventory of homes for sales was slightly lower than a year ago, but average time on the market increased.   The Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which looks at comparable home price changes, declined 0.4% for metro Denver in August relative to a year earlier.  Nationally, prices fell 4.4%.

In Colorado Springs, sales of existing single-family homes fell 16.0% in October and were down 14.1% year-to-date.  Condo-townhome sales declined 24.8% for the month and 18.3% for the year.  Average and median sales prices were down for the month, although average sales prices were up 1.5% and 3.1% respectively for the first ten months of 2007.

Foreclosures in El Paso County rose to 2,573 through September, more than the total for all of 2006.  At their current pace, the record of 3,476 foreclosures set in 1988 will be surpassed, although the size of the housing stock is much larger than 19 years ago.  The local building department estimated there were one foreclosure for ever 123 households in the first half of 2007, relative to one for every 28 households in 1988.
The apartment vacancy rate in metro Denver fell to 5.3% in the third quarter, according to Gordon Von Stroh at the University of Denver.  This was the lowest level since the first quarter 2001.  The average monthly rent declined 0.6%from the previous quarter to $858.36.  Both the average and median rent were below their level a year earlier. 

Nonresidential

The value of nonresidential construction contracts in Colorado rose 3.9% through September.  All of the gain was accounted for by the 303% surge in Mesa County.  Statewide there were gains in retail, office, hospitals and public buildings.  There were large declines in manufacturing, education, amusement and miscellaneous.

According to Grubb & Ellis, the Denver office vacancy rate fell to 10.1% in the Central Business District in the third quarter, while the Southeast Suburban Office Market rate increased to 17.1%, reversing a four-year decline.  Average lease rates are rising in both markets.  The industrial vacancy rate rose sharply to 8.1%, after falling steadily for the last year. 

Commercial vacancy rates in Colorado Springs rose in the third quarter relative to the same period in 2006, according to Turner Commercial Research.  The office vacancy rate increased to 8.2%, the industrial vacancy rate to 7.6% and the retail vacancy rate to 7.1%.  Office lease rates rose 7.4% to $11.39 per square foot over the past 12 months.

There is a great deal of construction activity underway at the Colorado Springs Airport, according to a story in the Gazette.  A number of projects are underway to improve service to general aviation traffic, along with 120,000 square feet of hangar space to house World War II vintage aircraft and a museum.

 

 

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