The Creighton University Mountain States Index fell for the fourth consecutive month in November, to 56.6. The Colorado component rose to 61.9. The Vectra Bank Small Business Index fell to 94.7 in November. The index has declined fairly steadily since June of 2005, although it improved slightly in the fall of 2007.
Five of the Colorado Springs monthly indicators compiled by local economist David Bamberger signaled good news and three signaled bad news in October. Single-family home permits and hotel occupancy rates declined, while foreclosures increased. Although employment has continued to grow in 2007, it is at the slowest rate since 1991 with the exception of the 2001 recession and its aftermath.
The Department of Defense announced an additional 4,877 troops will be added at Fort Carson by 2013, bringing the total to almost 30,000. This is expected to inject $250 million into the local economy and create over 3,000 additional jobs. Currently 17,500 active duty military are stationed at Fort Carson.
Royalties for mineral production in Colorado fell to $122.8 million in fiscal 2007, down 16.5% from 2006. This was the first decline since 2002. Lower natural gas prices were the cause of the drop. Colorado ranked fourth behind Wyoming, New Mexico and Utah in total royalties.
A survey of bankers in rural communities with an average population of 1,300 suggests slow economic growth in the coming months. The index rose for the first time in three months. The survey covers nine states in the central U.S., including Colorado.
Retail sales increased 12.9% in Colorado in July, according to the Department of Revenue. Year-to-date, sales are up 9.1%Colorado’s unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in November, from 3.7% in October. There were over 2,600 more Coloradans unemployed than a year ago and almost 6,600 fewer Coloradans at work, based on the household survey. Employment by place of work rose 2.0% through November.
Job growth in Colorado will average 1.9% in 2008, according to the University of Colorado’s Business Economic Outlook. All of the jobs gains will come in the service sector. In the good producing sector, gains in mining will be offset by losses in construction and manufacturing.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for the first quarter showed 23% of state employers plan to add jobs, while 11% plan cuts. In Colorado Springs, 7% of employers plan to increase staff, while 17% expect declines. This was the weakest outlook in the state.
Freeport-McMoRan plans to reopen the Climax molybdenum mine near Leadville. Construction will begin in the spring of 2008 with 150 workers and the mine will employ about 350 when production begins.
Intel has ended computer chip production in Colorado Springs, laying off 150. The other 250 workers will stay for several more months to shut down the plant and get equipment ready to be sold.
Cost-of-Living:
The metro Denver cost-of-living index was 105% of the U.S. average in the third quarter. Other Front Range cities were below the national average, although all but Fort Collins rose in relative terms.
Cost of Living – 2007:2
|
2007:3 |
2007:2 |
Colorado Springs |
95.0 |
94.0 |
Denver |
105.0 |
103.7 |
Fort Collins |
94.1 |
94.2 |
Greeley |
99.7 |
98.1 |
Source: ACCRA COLI.
Tourism:
The statewide hotel occupancy rate for October was 65.2%, up 3.5 percentage points from a year ago. The average daily room rate rose 9.7% to $115.93, according to the Rocky Mountain Lodging Report. Occupancy rates ranged from 36.0% at state resorts to 81.8% in Grand Junction.
Revenues at Colorado’s 41 casinos totaled to $65.8 million in October, below September but 1.7% above a year earlier. Gaming taxes paid were $9.1 million, above both September 2007 and October 2006. There were five fewer casinos than a year ago.
Passenger traffic at the Colorado Springs Airport rose for the fifth consecutive month in October, up 13.1%. The airport’s main runway has reopened after 16-months and two new airlines have begun flights to the Springs. Year-to-date, traffic is up 0.3%.
Enplanements at Denver International Airport increased 5.2% in October and were up 4.7% year-to-date. Through September, DIA was the fourth business airport in the nation, but in October it slipped back to fifth. It is the world’s tenth busiest airport.
Higher Education:
Colorado’s 28 public colleges, universities and community colleges educate 213,956 students and support 97,563 jobs, which contribute $4.25 billion in wages and salaries and almost $387 million in state and local taxes, according to a recent study by The Adams Group, Inc. for the Department of Higher Education. Public school tuition nationally rose 6.6% last year, while tuition at the University of Colorado increased between 7.0% and 14.6%.
Income:
Total personal income in Colorado rose 1.5% in the third quarter, ranking the state 17th in income growth. Colorado’s 2006 per capita income of $39,186 was the eighth highest in the nation, up 4.5% for the year, but down from seventh in 2005. Wyoming income soared 9.0% to $40,676, ranking it sixth. Bill Kendall of the Center for Business and Economic Forecasting points out that, after adjustment for inflation, Colorado’s median household income is below what it was in the late 1990s.
Colorado has funded only $37 billion of its $50 billion in pension liabilities for state employees, according to a Pew Center report. Colorado’s 74% funding ratio is well below the nation’s 85%. On the positive side, the state has funded 17% of its non-pension benefits such as health care and life insurance. Nationally the average is 3.
Coloradans donated $3.8 billion to charity in 2005, 7% below the national average, according to a study released by the Colorado Nonprofit Association. This ranked Colorado 36th among the 50 states.
Population:
The October revision of the Colorado population estimate by the state demography office shows a slightly smaller 2006 population of 4,813,536. The new 2007 population forecast is for a 1.96% gain. In 2006, the average household size was estimated to be 2.55, living in 1,846,921 housing units with a vacancy rate of 12.88%.
A report from the Center for Immigration studies found that the proportion of Colorado’s population born outside the U.S. has remained fairly constant over the last seven years. About 9% of Colorado residents are immigrants, down from 10% in 2000. Nationally, 17% of the population was born in another country.
Housing:
Housing permits declined 23.5% through October, with single-family activity down 31.4%. Greeley and Pueblo experienced the largest drops, 38.1% and 46.3% respectively, while Grand Junction had the smallest at 11.5%. Multifamily permits increased 8.2% statewide and 25.5% in metro Denver.
Sales of existing single-family homes in metro Denver fell 0.9% through October and were down 6.4% from the previous year. Multifamily sales declined 1.9% year-to-date and 8.6% for the month. Inventories were down for the month but up almost 10% for the year. Median and average prices were lower for both the month and the year. Sales in Colorado Springs were down 14.2% through November for single-family homes and 17.9% for multifamily. The average sales price increased slightly.
Existing home sales fell in 46 states in the third quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were down 13.7% nationally and 9.4% in Colorado. The median price rose in 93 of 150 metro areas. Sales were down sharply in many previously hot areas.
Existing Home Sales – 2007:3
|
2007:3 |
Nevada |
-35.0% |
Florida |
-32.0% |
Arizona |
-30.9% |
California |
-27.8% |
U.S. |
-13.7% |
Colorado |
- 9.4% |
Source: NAR.
New home sales are down even more sharply. MDC, a large Colorado home builder, reported third quarter sales were down 34% from a year earlier. Seven of the 12 largest builders reported a 49.8% decline in sales for the first eight months of 2007, according to the Rocky Mountain News.
The stateside apartment vacancy rate fell to 5.7% in the third quarter, the lowest since the first quarter of 2001. In Colorado Springs, the vacancy rate declined to a five-year low of 8.6% in the third quarter, down from 9.6% in the second quarter and 11.3% a year ago. Average rents are up slightly, but landlords still offer incentives to fill vacant space.
The statewide vacancy rate for affordable housing dropped to 4.7% in the second quarter, down from 6.0% three months earlier. In Grand Junction, where the economy is booming, the vacancy rate was 1.7%. Fort Collins was the easiest place to rent affordable housing, with a vacancy rate of 8.2%.
Interest-only and option adjustable rate mortgages fell to 12.5% of new mortgages in Colorado in 2007, down from 25.6% in 2004 but up from 3.6%s in 2003.
Denver had the 12th highest foreclosure rate among the 100 largest metro areas, with one foreclosure for every 77 households, according to RealtyTrac. These data count homes multiple times in the foreclosure process. Stockton, CA had the highest rate, with one foreclosure for every 31 households.
There were 4,296 foreclosures in Colorado in October, one for every 382 houses. This was below both September 2007 and October 2006. Colorado had the seventh highest rate in the U.S., according to RealtyTrac. A separate study by the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that 4.32% of Colorado mortgages were delinquent and 1.71% were in foreclosure.
Foreclosures in El Paso County rose 11% to 1,529 in the third quarter, according to RealtyTrac. County Public Trustee data showed 3,106 foreclosures through November, above the total for all of 2006 and the highest in 20 years. A study for the U.S. Conference of Mayors suggests that rising foreclosures will reduce growth in the local economy by $421.9 million or 1.1 percentage points.
Nonresidential:
Office vacancy rates in metro Denver continued to decline, to 15.6% in the third quarter, according to Ross Research Services. Absorption fell 41% relative to the second quarter. Retail and industrial vacancy rate inched up to 6.6% and 6.3% respectively.
The value of nonresidential contracts surged 88.6% in October, bringing the year-to-date gain to 13.5%. Grand Junction, Greeley and metro Denver all posted large gains.